Hey guys, welcome back now bitcoin and the Crypto market have not had the best start to the year. As i record this bitcoin is already down 19 as investors continue to rotate out of risk assets following a record year in 2021. Now from everything i am looking at 2022 is a very difficult year to make price predictions as there are many big catalysts which could impact the price in a big way and the problem is it's in both directions these catalysts could send the bitcoin price soaring but they could also send bitcoins price crashing so in this Post. 

we'll cover each scenario try to piece together. what i think will be the most likely scenario and then assign price targets in both directions. so we'll look at bitcoin's fundamentals and let's keep our eye on the ball then the bull case for bitcoin. what could send bitcoins price soaring then the bear case for bitcoin. what could p on bitcoin's parade causing a big sell-off and then we'll finish with price targets for both directions as always. if you do enjoy anything in the Post then drop a like always appreciated okay so when it comes to price predictions it's never good to just pull numbers out of the air.

I will always use analysis logic and reason and what best place to start than with the fundamentals ready let's do this and first up is what is going on in the background. so this is the growth in monthly active developers on the bitcoin network and this data is fresh off the press from electric capital and one of the things. i noticed is that from inception this has pretty much been steadily growing all the way and most recently in the last year this growth trend is looking really really strong now as we know bitcoin has had some cycle tops and huge crashes.

So, i went back and overlaid where the big crashes were and very interestingly there was a big crash here a big crash here and a big crash here but when it came to the developers working on the protocol amazingly more and more developers just kept on coming so for me this is a really positive sign for bitcoin next up. 

we have bitcoins hash rates which is the computational power of the network and the big eyesore on this chart is this china ban which happened around here when they shut down all the bitcoin miners and we had this huge migration across the world however since then it's been coming back and we've now just hit new all-time highs in the hash rate so this says to me that bitcoin's network is extremely resilient but again it's another green flag next up is the public companies that have decided to put bitcoin on their balance sheet and this now stands at 27 companies and remember about a year ago this was zero in fact.

It was micro strategy that took the lead late in 2020 but again another green flag as more and more companies are choosing to put bitcoin on their balance sheets and could this be the next trend this was another report and completely out of the blue and rio de janeiro the first city in the world is to allocate one percent of their treasuries to bitcoin now will this follow and will we start to see cities all around the world putting their treasuries into bitcoin again another huge green flag we now have strike which was bitcoin's layer 2 expanding into argentina and then previously gone into el salvador before the country decided to make it legal tender but argentina is like 20 30 times bigger than el salvador we have a huge bitcoin bull jack dorsey who is now putting together a bitcoin legal defense fund and this will help defend developers from any lawsuits regarding activities from the bitcoin ecosystem and another huge milestone later this year the banks are now getting involved and due to a recent partnership it's now estimated that you'll be able to buy and sell bitcoin from 300 banks. 

So it's huge news when banks begin getting into crypto and the latest from big tech they also are getting into bitcoin and crypto we now have google expanding their crypto team to get into crypto payments we have intel that have created a bitcoin mining chip and we have facebook and instagram beginning to integrate with nfts so on the fundamentals. 

we've got excellent growth from developers the hash rate is now setting new all-time highs we have banks getting involved more companies allocating cities begin allocating and now big tech all jumping on board so from a fundamentals point of view it's looking really really strong and i always like to keep my eye on the ball fundamentals are more important than the price now for the bold case of bitcoin it really comes down to two things first this was the recent decision to delay the most recent spot bitcoin etf but it's only a matter of time until the bitcoin etf goes live in the us and when it does it's going to be huge in fact it's now getting a bit embarrassing why the fed continues to delay we even had the sec commissioner recently speaking that she doesn't understand why the bitcoin etf hasn't yet gone live and when it does new money will begin flooding into bitcoin and the second huge catalyst again is crypto regulations from the us. 

There is an enormous amount of money waiting to get involved but institutions don't want to allocate hundreds of millions if there can be a sudden crash just around the corner but all this money is like water in a dam and the pressure is building and building and building and water always finds a way so where is this money currently being pushed to well this is d5 and d5 has been going sideways now for over one year so where is this money flooding to well this is what's going on in the world of nfts and because no regulations are likely to come in the short term you can see all the money is being pushed into nfts and you'll notice nfts now are everywhere and i think the main cause of this are the delays in u.s regulation now when it comes to the bear case it's a very similar picture it all depends what's going to happen with crypto regulations with unfavorable regulations. 

The us certainly has the power to crush the crypto market in the short term the next is the us stock market and we shouldn't spend our lives just living in the crypto bubble crypto right now is heavily correlated to the us stock market so we have to pay attention to what is going on in stocks and as you can see most recently stocks have been going vertical in fact the s p last year finished up 27 now this is not normal at all historically this should be closer to 10 so stocks are bubbling up which is why so many people are calling for a big stock market crash and already the s p this year is down five percent so this is also causing a lot of fear in the markets right now now from a technical analysis point of view this is bitcoin's price and we have the golden crosses and the death crosses and for anyone new the red line is the 200-day moving average a long-term average we then have the shorter 50-day moving average here and because of the pullback in bitcoin whenever the 50 day crosses over the 200. 

we get this death cross and this is a very bearish sign for all traders which is going to be quite a big portion of the market and already prices are going down so current technicals do not look that good and when we look at the sentiment right now again investors are in extreme fear we also shouldn't forget that we are in the midst still of this pandemic and this is what's happening to the latest cases which on paper looks like an extremely worrying sign considering these were the three previous peaks now some good news fresh out of the uk the uk doesn't seem to be too concerned about this and in fact we are loosening up all the restrictions as from next week people are no longer required to wear a mask covered passports are to be scrapped social distancing is to be scrapped the work from home policy is also to be scrapped and the prime minister has said about a plan of learning to live with covid like we do the cold and flu so very positive signs coming out of the uk but again this is a bit of a black swan as anything can happen with new variants later in the year. 

So, when it comes to price predictions we cannot forget that there's also downside risk some kind of regulation bomb stock market crash interest rates rising i would also put under the stock market category a covered variant or some other thing that comes out of the blue so when it comes to price targets i'll do one for the bull case scenario and the bare case so if everything falls right for bitcoin we can certainly see a 3x from the 40k mark which would be a hundred and twenty thousand dollars and as a worst case scenario i could see bitcoin price going down to twenty thousand dollars and i would see this as a flaw as there is going to be huge by pressure as this was the previous cycles all-time high so now you can see what i mean if things fall the right way then it will be huge for bitcoin and crypto however if things fall the wrong way then the downside potential is also pretty big now remember it's all about probabilities and i personally don't believe that it's 50 50 either way when i keep my eye on the fundamentals i do remain in the optimistic camp say more 70 30. 

So, more likely that it's going to swing in a positive direction but this is also why i'm a big proponent on planning on how to win in either direction which i covered in my investing plan here so reasonable price target to the upside would be a three x to a hundred and twenty thousand dollars and to the downside worst case scenario would be twenty thousand dollars now i know this is not what many of you want to hear oh so the price could go up or down great thanks for that but for me 2022 really is a pivotal year and i can't justifyjust saying that prices are going up it really does depend on how these factors play out and unfortunately all of theseevents are not in our control now having said all that i do firmly believe over a longer time frame think three to five years that bitcoin and crypto will almost certainly be a lot higher this was just 2022 and i do think there is an enormous amount of money just waiting on the sideline for the green flag from us regulation which i'm personally very optimistic about so they are guys hope you enjoyed where do you think bitcoin's price will be going this year let me know below but for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the post. 

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